Opinion
 Forecast: Cloudy With Challenges
By Robert Faletra
You're going to be listening to the cloud computing hype and how to deal with it for years. Like other trends, it will take two to three times longer to play out than the analyst consensus predicts.
But regardless of when cloud computing will be the dominant delivery of computing resources, it is going to reshape much of what we know today over the long term.
The groundwork for cloud computing has been set by all the trends of the past—most recently the managed services play. Many businesses and even home users have been using cloud applications for years. Salesforce.com is a good example as are any of the mail or banking applications that home users boot into daily.
But cloud computing, or the ability to simply purchase more computing power, is the future step and is going to require many different approaches to sales models both direct and indirect. This movement will spawn new competitors and kill off some old ones. The reason Cisco is picking a fight with HP and IBM while entering the server business is because it sees itself providing complete solutions answer in order to deliver in the future cloud era.
Some new players are already emerging, Amazon being an example of a company with vast computing resources it has opened up to others beyond its firewall. There is certainly going to be a remaking of channel programs in the coming years. Already the value and role of distribution is being questioned. But, realistically, there are some core business challenges that need sorting through. Here are some:
How does a vendor stay relevant when its products are sold as a part of a utility that carries another brand and is sold by someone else?
If all I need is a connection to the broadband pipe—be it hardwire or wireless—to get access to whatever computing power I need, will the Telcos be the real winners?
Will all suppliers to business and home users need to have a cloud solution or risk being dis-intermediated by those that may not have best of breed but do have a cost-effective bundle?
If we are headed toward a world where most distribution will be in the form of digital property and a declining amount of physical distribution of product, what is the role distribution will play and will it force consolidation?
How do today's channel program elements help or hinder the movement and how do they need to change?
In the end, this is a long-term trend that may take more than a decade to be realized. But it's hard to argue that it won't play out in some fashion or that there are not going to be many changes and challenges over the short and long term as a result. |