Opinion
We all Should be Paranoid
By Robert Faletra
 Are you optimistic about 2010? Well, the answer to general optimism is an easy one. You wouldn't be an entrepreneur if you were not eternally optimistic, with a healthy dose of paranoia that your competitors and sometimes your suppliers are out to get you.
The evolving big-theme landscape is something you need to watch and contemplate how it will affect you over the long term. We are seeing a lot of repositioning, reconfiguring and maneuvering by suppliers preparing for a cloud computing world. Let's not discount that the channel and individual channel companies will be impacted along the way. It isn't all going to be easy, and it isn't all going to be good.
So here's where my paranoia comes in. I believe the only reason anyone does business with anyone in the delivery or acquisition pipeline is because it makes economic sense. All salespeople would rather take the business direct than move it through an indirect channel. It's a question of control.
The reality is Cisco is maneuvering to be a cloud computing supplier. HP is a natural cloud player. IBM is less capable but certainly likes the model and wants in. Cloud computing is a long way from true large-scale deployment, but we are moving slowly to a world where computing power is sold and bought much like electricity is.
Without question, this long-term trend is going to cause massive channel conflict. More immediately, solution providers are going to feel the heat from the major suppliers. Companies like Cisco, IBM, EMC and others are steeped in a direct-sales heritage. Sure, they have a channel and, certainly, they spend lots of money on channel development.
The more cloud capable Cisco becomes and the more it can line up against HP the more you have to suspect that both companies are going to want to leverage their sales channel. And if you happen to be a solution provider that sells both you have to expect one or the other, or both, is going to say choose me or them.
Farther down the road, can we expect more computing power to be sold direct rather than through the channel? It's probably too early to tell and, to some degree, cloud computing could actually increase the available market.
Next year is certainly not going to be the year of cloud computing or anywhere close to being the period where the cloud becomes a strong option. It will, however, be a year in which cloud computing continues to develop and that alone is going to cause issues.
Channels need to be moving down the cloud path as well, and need to be evaluating and watching suppliers with a skeptical eye, understanding all the while why they want to do business. That's not paranoia; it's business. |