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 Diptarup Chakraborti, Principal Research Analyst, Gartner, predicts major changes in the client computing scenario led by desktop virtualization and cloud computing. PCs will get increasingly less strategic in enterprises
Many changes are underway in the PC market, and the implications for enterprises, vendors and channels are significant.
By the end of 2012, 60 percent of all enterprise PCs will be configured to offer desktop virtualization. The pressure on IT departments to simplify the management of their client deployments and contain costs is leading them to consider alternative client-computing architectures. So far, server-based computing and hosted virtual desktops have emerged as the most popular alternative architectures. However, the percentage of actual users of alternative architectures is still relatively low. While the reduction in total cost of ownership (TCO) is the prime motivator for this, there are other benefits.
What this means for vendors and channels is that organizations will increasingly view PCs less strategically. They want to stay with PC applications, but be rid of the costs, limitations and relative inflexibility of the PC platform.
Alternative client-computing architectures such as hosted virtual desktops (HVDs), streaming PCs, server-based computing (SBC) and blade PCs present new possibilities for IT managers to deliver client-computing capabilities to users on a variety of devices.
HVD and SBC are the most popular alternative client-computing architectures. HVD is of particular interest because it provides a shortcut to thinning the client device footprint with minimal compromise of end-user experience. Because of capital costs, we don’t expect blade PCs to achieve mainstream deployment, but they will suit specific needs where security is an imperative. Application streaming has been around since 2001, but has only recently started to see some real user deployments.
The growing interest in alternative client-computing architectures will further slow new professional desktop PC shipments or replacements. This is because other devices such as thin clients and refurbished or aged PCs will offer alternatives. Some organizations will continue using existing desktops, while others will replace their PCs with thin clients.
Most organizations are still in the pilot phase of implementing alternative delivery architectures, and analyzing financial costs and technology benefit models. The next replacement cycle in large enterprises, along with the advent of Windows 7, will increase the uptake.
Having made a strong case for desktop virtualization, I would also like to underline the inhibitors for its adoption. Chief among them:
- Higher initial capital cost of deployment and migration
- Cost associated with training and/or recruiting IT support personnel
- Most alternative client-computing architectures are still not market-proven
- Licensing terms remain complex
Bright future for Macs
The number of Macs used in enterprises will double between 2009 and 2013. Although most enterprises do not purchase Macs for their employees, many are finding that users demand more choice.
Some organizations are responding by allowing users to select or own their PCs. Others, while trying to minimize the use of Macs, provide limited support, realizing that it is better to ensure their networks are secure and users are productive than to suffer problems caused by ignored systems.
Macs are becoming more usable in organizations as applications become increasingly OS-neutral. However, the majority of applications in a typical organization still require Windows.
As a greater percentage of enterprise applications become OS-neutral, the cost to support a more diverse hardware and OS mix will decrease, making Macs a more viable choice for a greater number of users who continue to demand them.
We expect a doubling in the number of Macs, purchased by individuals, finding their way into organization networks. However, this isn’t to say that the sale of Macs to organizations will double.
The software angle
Windows 7 will be the last major OS upgrade project that organizations will perform. Most organizations skipped Vista and downgraded to XP. We believe that enterprises are typically adopting the practice of skipping what we call plumbing OS releases.
| Takeaways for 2010 | - By end-2012, 60 percent of all enterprise PCs will be configured to offer desktop virtualization
- Number of Macs used in enterprises will double between 2009 and 2013
- Windows 7 will be the last major OS upgrade organizations will perform
- By 2011, at least five major vendors will be providing desktop-as-a-service
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For instance, Windows 8, which is likely to ship in 2013, will probably be a plumbing release, and by the time Windows 9 is released in 2016, new deployment techniques and alternative delivery models will change the way organizations perform major upgrades to their environments. Organizations will be more likely to slipstream new technology into their environments and leverage virtualization techniques to run multiple environments (including OSes) concurrently.
Traditionally, OS upgrades have a tendency to act as a catalyst for upgrades, including hardware and application. What this means is that Windows 7 represents the last time that an OS will potentially ignite an across-the-board upgrade cycle.
Desktop-as-a-service
By 2011, at least five major vendors will be providing desktop-as-a-service (DaaS) as a means for enterprises to get predictable and consistent pricing and service. DaaS is emerging as a way to package the end-user computing environment into discrete, measurable offerings that can be swapped out easily and/or scaled at the lowest incremental unit cost for reduced TCO. In addition, organizations will look at DaaS as a means to get consistent pricing and service levels, and to move capital costs to operating expenses.
Many large organizations will have sufficient economies of scale to develop their own internal DaaS offerings. However, as PCs are increasingly perceived as tactical assets, many enterprises will be interested in adopting DaaS from third parties to free internal IT resources and focus on more strategic projects. Smaller organizations without the necessary economies of scale will look at third-party DaaS as a way to deliver a wider variety of technologies and services to their users. |