June 25, 2025 | Sydney — Agentic AI, one of the most talked-about frontiers in artificial intelligence, is already showing signs of overreach. According to a new forecast by Gartner, over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027 due to spiraling costs, limited business value, and insufficient risk management.
“Most agentic AI projects right now are early-stage experiments or proofs of concept that are mostly driven by hype and are often misapplied,” said Anushree Verma, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner. “This can blind organizations to the real cost and complexity of deploying AI agents at scale, stalling projects from moving into production.”
Hype Over Strategy
The prediction underscores a growing concern within the tech community: agentic AI is being rushed into development cycles without a clear strategy. A recent Gartner poll (January 2025) of over 3,400 webinar participants revealed that only 19% of organizations have made significant investments in agentic AI, while 42% are taking a conservative approach. A significant portion—31%—remain on the fence or unsure of their plans.
Compounding the problem is a trend Gartner refers to as “agent washing,” where vendors repackage existing solutions—like AI assistants, robotic process automation (RPA), and chatbots—as agentic AI offerings, without offering the autonomy or complexity that true AI agents require. Currently, Gartner estimates that only about 130 out of thousands of so-called agentic AI vendors are delivering genuine agentic capabilities.
Mismatch Between Expectations and Capabilities
According to Verma, “Most agentic AI propositions lack significant value or return on investment (ROI), as current models don’t have the maturity and agency to autonomously achieve complex business goals or follow nuanced instructions over time.” Many use cases labeled as “agentic” today, she adds, could be achieved with simpler AI tools.
The disconnect between the hype and the actual technological readiness is leading to poor investment decisions and unmet expectations—especially when legacy systems are involved. Organizations attempting to bolt agentic AI onto existing workflows often find themselves grappling with high integration costs and disruptions.
A Long-Term Opportunity, If Done Right
Despite early turbulence, Gartner remains optimistic about the long-term potential of agentic AI. The firm predicts that by 2028, 15% of all day-to-day work decisions will be made autonomously by AI agents, up from 0% in 2024. Similarly, one-third of enterprise applications are expected to incorporate agentic AI by 2028.
The path forward, Gartner suggests, lies in strategic alignment. Agentic AI should be deployed where it clearly boosts enterprise-wide productivity rather than simply automating tasks at the individual level. Organizations are advised to adopt AI agents selectively—for instance, using them in scenarios that demand decision-making, while reserving traditional automation for routine workflows.
“To get real value from agentic AI, organizations must focus on enterprise productivity, rather than just individual task augmentation,” Verma emphasized. “It’s about driving business value through cost, quality, speed, and scale.”
Final Takeaway
Gartner’s findings serve as a wake-up call for CIOs, CTOs, and business leaders dazzled by the promises of AI autonomy. While agentic AI has immense promise, jumping in too soon—or for the wrong reasons—can be costly. The message is clear: separate the signal from the noise, and ground your AI strategy in business outcomes, not buzzwords.
